With just a month until the 2013 Derby, hopefully you're getting excited. If you're not, well, shame on you. What kind of person are you to read the blog of two Equine Management majors and not care about the derby?!
Anywho, if you are excited, let's take a look at the top 20 eligible under the Derby's new point system (I'd explain that for you but honesty I've yet to look up how that works) I should also mention that I am not a real handicapper. I do this for fun, and of course I will voice my opinions. That's what blogs are for!
Fresh off his win in the Florida Derby (Gr I), he's on a 4 race winning streak (He's, 3 for 3 in his 2013 season). He's beaten fellow Derby candidates Itsmyluckyday, Merit Man, and Shanghai Bobby. He also won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gr. II) He's pedigree says he's got the distance!
#2 Revolutionary
War Pass x Runup the Colors (A.P. Indy)
Trained by Todd Pletcher
While Orb was sweeping the Florida Derby, Revolutionary was sweeping the Louisiana Derby (Gr II). He's got a 3 race winning streak going, including the Withers Stakes (Gr III). Dam provides the stamina, sire provides the speed. Can run wide, will battle for the win. Can run from the middle of the pack.
#3 Lines of Battle
War Front x Black Speck (Arch)
Trained by Aidan O'Brien
In the shadow of the Dubai World Cup, he swept a $2 million victory in the UAE Derby (Gr II). May not be able to get the distance. #4 Will Take Charge
Unbridle's Song x Take Charge Lady (Dehere)
Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
The son of a Kentucky Oaks runner up stretches out to take the Rebel Stakes (Gr II) after finishing off the board at the same distance in the Southwest Stakes (Gr III). He has a previous win at a mile in the ungraded Smarty Jones Stakes. He's a half brother to Derby contender Take Charge Indy (injured in Derby), his sire finished 5th in his own Kentucky Derby. Keep an eye on him, he might just get the distance!
#5 Itsmyluckyday
Lawyer Ron x Viva La Slew (Doneraile Court)
Trained by Eddie Plesa Jr.
An early favorite. He ran second to Orb in the Florida Derby (Gr I), first in the Holy Bull Stakes (Gr III) and first in a handful of other non-graded stakes races. By a stallion who ran 12th in the Kentucky Derby behind Barbaro. However, his dam was not bred for stamina, neither was his maternal grandsire. May fall short in the Derby distance.
#6 Vyjack
Into Mischief x Life Happened (Stravinsky)
Trained by Rudy Rodriguez
Currently undefeated, this gelding's 4 for 4! He's got three stakes races under his belt (two graded). His most recent is the Gotham (Gr III). But can he stretch out? He's all speed, not much stamina.
#7 Govenor Charlie
Midnight Lute x Silverbulletway (Storm Cat)
Trained by Bob Baffert
This boy is just getting started, he did not run as a 2yr old. He currently has a two race winning streak with his one stakes the Sunland Derby (Gr. III). The 1 1/8 mile win helps him out considering his sire is a sprinter. Can he stretch it out a little bit further?
#8 Black Onyx
Rock Hard Ten x Kalahari Cat (Cape Town)
Trained by Kelly Breen
Another one with a two race winning streak. He made his steaks debut in the Spiral Stakes (Gr III) defeating fellow top 20 horse Uncaptured. He's by Rock Hard Ten who ran 2nd in the Preakness and 5th in the Belmont but won the Santa Anita Handicap (Gr I) at a mile and a quarter. His maternal grandsire Cap Town ran 5th in the Kentucky Derby. He should be okay on stamina.
#9 Verrazano
More Than Ready x Enchanted Rock (Giant's Causeway)
Trained by Todd Pletcher
By a sire that ran 4th in the Derby, if he can stretch out a little further than his sire, Verrazano might just take it. His dam's side might carry him where stamina is concerned. He's undefeated with three starts. He recently conquered the field in the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr. II). He's a half sibling to 2012 Derby starter El Padrino.
#10 Hear The Ghost
Ghostzapper x Rehear (Coronado's Quest)
Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
Gelding coming out on top of the San Felipe Stakes (Gr II) defeating Flashback and Goldencents (also top 20 scorers). Pedigree is swift with staying power! Lightly raced with only three starts to date. Off the Derby trail with minor injury!
#11 Mylute
Midnight Lute x Stage Shop (Valid Expectations)
Trained by Tom Amoss
Here's one for the gray horse fans! Has yet to win a graded stakes race but was second in the Louisiana Derby (Gr. II) to Revolutionary, 7th in the Risen Star Stakes (Gr II) and 3rd in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes. Sired by a sprinter out of a sprinter, but seems to like going the distance. Keep an eye on this one
#12 Oxbow
Awesome Again x Tizamazing (Cee's Tizzy)
Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
He placed in the Rebel Stakes (Gr. II) behind Will Take Charge, ran 4th in the Risen Star Stakes (Gr II), but he did win the LeComte Stakes (Gr III). His pedigree says the distance is in his blood. Good family. One of my favorites!
#13 Uncaptured
Lion Heart x Captivating (Arch)
Trained by Mark Casse
This boy captured the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Gr. III) but ran second to Black Onyx in the Spiral Stakes (Gr. III). His sire, Lion Heart, placed 2nd in the 2004 Derby. Half brother to a top sprinter. Speed x Stamina, is it the right mix?
#14 Flashback
Tapit x Rhumb Line (Mr. Greeley)
Trained by Bob Baffert
OMG Look at that color! If he runs you know you're betting on him. Those grays really make you drool. He ran second to Hear the Ghost in the San Felipe (Gr. II) but won the Robert B. Lewis (Gr. II) going the same distance. Full brother to Zazu, a high-class filly! His sire finished 9th in the Derby, but won the Wood Memorial. I mean, if you're going to bet because he's gray, don't feel too bad, he's got a good classic pedigree. Do it! I like the horse.
#15 Goldencents
Into Mischief x Golden Works (Banker's Gold)
Trained by Doug O'Neill
He's coming off a fourth place finish in the San Felipe (Gr. II) behind Hear the Ghost and Flashback. But he scored two first placed stakes finishes in the Sham Stakes (Gr III) and the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (Gr. III). He also placed in the Foxwood Champagne Stakes (Gr.I). The question is, can he run the distance?
#16 Java's War
War Pass x Java (Rainbow Quest)
Trianed by Kenny McPeek
In his latest start he ran second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr. II). His other prep includes the Dixiana Breeder's Futurity (Gr I) in which he placed. Has a bit of turf pedigree on his dam's side, but with it comes stamina. Shares the same sire as Revolutionary, War Pass.
#17 Merit Man
With Distinction x Precise Strike (Precise End)
Trained by Bob Hess Jr.
He was third in the Florida Derby (Gr. I) behind Orb, he was 4th in the Hutcheson Stakes (Gr II) but won the ungraded Spectacular Bid Stakes. Sprinter x Sprinter. I doubt he'll last the distance.
He finished 3rd in the Rebel Stakes (Gr II) behind Will Take Charge and Oxbow. He finished second behind Flashback in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Gr. II) and second behind Goldencents in the Sham Stakes (Gr III). He finished 3rd in the CashCall Futurity (Gr.I) ahead of Oxbow. He's by the same sire as Rachel Alexandra and Oaks winner Plum Pretty! Plus he barely missed winning his own Belmont Stakes. The mile and a quarter shouldn't be too much of a problem for this boy.
#19 Falling Sky
Lion Heart x Sea Dragoness (Sea Hero)
Trained by John Terranova II
Another colt by Lion Heart! He ran 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr. II) behind Verrazano and Java's War, but won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (Gr. III). Lion Heart placed in his own Derby, but he was a front runner. Could he be too packed with speed to hold much stamina? #20 Departing
War Front x Leave (Pulpit)
Trained by Al Stall Jr.
He ran 3rd in the Louisiana Derby (Gr II) behind Revolutionary and Mylute for his only loss. His only other stakes race in the ungraded Texas Heritage Stakes. His sire seems to be more of a sprinter, his dam raced once and finished 8th. His maternal grandsire ran 4th in the 1997 Derby, won the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. II), ran second in the Florida Derby (Gr. I) and won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gr II). Perhaps if he's more like his grandsire than his sire, he'll do just fine.
Be sure to check back closer to Derby when I pick my top 5 runners!
Hear The Ghost is out of the running!
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